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Calahorra II vs Alberite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calahorra II
Calahorra II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alberite
Alberite
11/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Calahorra II65%
×Draw19%
Alberite16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calahorra II
2.25
Alberite
1.00

Calahorra II creates 125% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 46 away

creates per match

Calahorra II
1.89
Alberite
0.85

allows per match

Calahorra II
1.16
Alberite
2.61

finishing

Calahorra II+0.00on par
Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra II ↓

Alberite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Calahorra II or draw
84%
Calahorra II or Alberite
81%
Draw or Alberite
35%

Winning margin

Calahorra II wins by 2+
42%
Alberite wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Calahorra II 1+ goals
89%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
65%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
39%
Alberite 1+ goals
63%
Alberite 2+ goals
26%
Alberite 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Calahorra II (draw refunded)
81%
Alberite (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.16 · 92 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra II attack 1.89 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.25

Alberite attack 0.85 + Calahorra II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Calahorra II scores more
65%
level
19%
Alberite scores more
16%

Calahorra II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Calahorra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calahorra II vs Alberite

Calahorra II beat Alberite 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.