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Cala Pozuelo vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
4/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cala Pozuelo37%
×Draw28%
Trival Valderas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cala Pozuelo
1.21
Trival Valderas
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

creates per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.12
Trival Valderas
0.97

allows per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.41
Trival Valderas
1.30

finishing

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par
Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cala Pozuelo ↓

Trival Valderas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cala Pozuelo or draw
64%
Cala Pozuelo or Trival Valderas
72%
Draw or Trival Valderas
63%

Winning margin

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
16%
Trival Valderas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
70%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
34%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
12%
Trival Valderas 1+ goals
70%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
33%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
51%
Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cala Pozuelo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.12 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cala Pozuelo scores more
37%
level
28%
Trival Valderas scores more
36%

Cala Pozuelo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cala Pozuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cala Pozuelo 1 – 1 Trival Valderas

Cala Pozuelo and Trival Valderas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo in Pozuelo de Alarcón.