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Cala Pozuelo vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
9/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cala Pozuelo33%
×Draw28%
Collado Villalba39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cala Pozuelo
1.08
Collado Villalba
1.21

Collado Villalba creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.12
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.41
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cala Pozuelo ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cala Pozuelo or draw
61%
Cala Pozuelo or Collado Villalba
72%
Draw or Collado Villalba
67%

Winning margin

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
13%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
66%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
29%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
10%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
70%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
34%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
46%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cala Pozuelo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.12 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cala Pozuelo scores more
33%
level
28%
Collado Villalba scores more
39%

Collado Villalba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Cala Pozuelo 0–0 Collado Villalba

Cala Pozuelo and Collado Villalba drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo in Pozuelo de Alarcón.