Cala Pozuelo 1–1 Carabanchel: Result & Stats

Cala Pozuelo

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Carabanchel

10/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cala Pozuelo40%

×Draw27%

Carabanchel33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cala PozueloExpected goals in this matchCarabanchel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.18

Cala Pozuelo

1.32

Carabanchel

1.18

Cala Pozuelo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

1.12

creates per match

0.95

1.41

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cala Pozuelo

1.12

Carabanchel

0.95

allows per match

Cala Pozuelo

1.41

Carabanchel

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Carabanchel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cala Pozuelo ↓

Carabanchel →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cala Pozuelo or draw

67%

Cala Pozuelo or Carabanchel

73%

Draw or Carabanchel

60%

Winning margin

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+

18%

Carabanchel wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals

73%

Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals

38%

Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals

15%

Carabanchel 1+ goals

69%

Carabanchel 2+ goals

33%

Carabanchel 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)

55%

Carabanchel (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cala Pozuelo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Carabanchel away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.12 + Carabanchel defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Carabanchel attack 0.95 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cala Pozuelo scores more

40%

level

27%

Carabanchel scores more

33%

Cala Pozuelo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cala Pozuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Cala Pozuelo 1–1 Carabanchel

Cala Pozuelo and Carabanchel drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo in Pozuelo de Alarcón.

Cala Pozuelo vs Carabanchel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Cala Pozuelo 1–1 Carabanchel