Cala Pozuelo 2–1 Aravaca: Result & Stats

Cala Pozuelo

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aravaca

4/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cala Pozuelo42%

×Draw27%

Aravaca30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cala PozueloExpected goals in this matchAravaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.08

Cala Pozuelo

1.33

Aravaca

1.08

Cala Pozuelo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

0.76

1.41

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Cala Pozuelo

1.12

Aravaca

0.76

allows per match

Cala Pozuelo

1.41

Aravaca

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Aravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cala Pozuelo ↓

Aravaca →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cala Pozuelo or draw

70%

Cala Pozuelo or Aravaca

73%

Draw or Aravaca

58%

Winning margin

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+

19%

Aravaca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals

74%

Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals

38%

Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals

15%

Aravaca 1+ goals

66%

Aravaca 2+ goals

29%

Aravaca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)

58%

Aravaca (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cala Pozuelo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Aravaca away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.12 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aravaca attack 0.76 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cala Pozuelo scores more

42%

level

27%

Aravaca scores more

30%

Cala Pozuelo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cala Pozuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff