Cala Pozuelo 0–1 AD Parla: Result & Stats

Cala Pozuelo

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AD Parla

3/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cala Pozuelo41%

×Draw26%

AD Parla32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cala PozueloExpected goals in this matchAD Parla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.20

Cala Pozuelo

1.39

AD Parla

1.20

Cala Pozuelo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

1.12

creates per match

0.99

1.41

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Cala Pozuelo

1.12

AD Parla

0.99

allows per match

Cala Pozuelo

1.41

AD Parla

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cala Pozuelo ↓

AD Parla →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cala Pozuelo or draw

68%

Cala Pozuelo or AD Parla

74%

Draw or AD Parla

59%

Winning margin

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+

19%

AD Parla wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals

75%

Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals

40%

Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals

16%

AD Parla 1+ goals

70%

AD Parla 2+ goals

34%

AD Parla 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)

56%

AD Parla (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cala Pozuelo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.12 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

AD Parla attack 0.99 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cala Pozuelo scores more

41%

level

26%

AD Parla scores more

32%

Cala Pozuelo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cala Pozuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff