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Caiquetio vs Unistars — Division di Honor 2019

Caiquetio
Caiquetio
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Unistars
Unistars
6/4/2026Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Caiquetio73%
×Draw15%
Unistars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caiquetio
3.05
Unistars
1.23

Caiquetio creates 148% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Caiquetio
1.22
Unistars
0.67

allows per match

Caiquetio
1.78
Unistars
4.89

finishing

Caiquetio+0.00on par
Unistars+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caiquetio ↓

Unistars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Caiquetio or draw
87%
Caiquetio or Unistars
85%
Draw or Unistars
27%

Winning margin

Caiquetio wins by 2+
53%
Unistars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Caiquetio 1+ goals
95%
Caiquetio 2+ goals
80%
Caiquetio 3+ goals
57%
Unistars 1+ goals
71%
Unistars 2+ goals
35%
Unistars 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Caiquetio (draw refunded)
85%
Unistars (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caiquetio at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Unistars away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caiquetio attack 1.22 + Unistars defence 4.89 → ÷2 → 3.05

Unistars attack 0.67 + Caiquetio defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Caiquetio scores more
73%
level
15%
Unistars scores more
13%

Caiquetio at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Caiquetio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caiquetio vs Unistars

Caiquetio beat Unistars 2-1 in Division di Honor on June 4, 2026.