Caiquetio 1–3 Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Caiquetio

FT

1 – 3

Santa Fe

10/29/2023

Division di Honor · Round 4Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Caiquetio40%

×Draw22%

Santa Fe37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaiquetioExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.71

Caiquetio

1.79

Santa Fe

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

1.60

1.82

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Caiquetio

1.18

Santa Fe

1.60

allows per match

Caiquetio

1.82

Santa Fe

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caiquetio+0.00on par

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caiquetio ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Caiquetio or draw

63%

Caiquetio or Santa Fe

78%

Draw or Santa Fe

60%

Winning margin

Caiquetio wins by 2+

21%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Caiquetio 1+ goals

83%

Caiquetio 2+ goals

53%

Caiquetio 3+ goals

26%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

82%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

51%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Caiquetio (draw refunded)

52%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caiquetio at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caiquetio attack 1.18 + Santa Fe defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Santa Fe attack 1.60 + Caiquetio defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caiquetio scores more

40%

level

22%

Santa Fe scores more

37%

Caiquetio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Caiquetio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff