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Caiquetio vs Nacional — Division di Honor 2019

Caiquetio
Caiquetio
FT
1 – 3
Nacional
Nacional
11/25/2023Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 7Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Caiquetio27%
×Draw22%
Nacional52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caiquetio
1.39
Nacional
2.00

Nacional creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 61 away

creates per match

Caiquetio
1.22
Nacional
2.21

allows per match

Caiquetio
1.78
Nacional
1.56

finishing

Caiquetio+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caiquetio ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Caiquetio or draw
48%
Caiquetio or Nacional
78%
Draw or Nacional
73%

Winning margin

Caiquetio wins by 2+
12%
Nacional wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Caiquetio 1+ goals
75%
Caiquetio 2+ goals
40%
Caiquetio 3+ goals
16%
Nacional 1+ goals
86%
Nacional 2+ goals
59%
Nacional 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Caiquetio (draw refunded)
34%
Nacional (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caiquetio at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caiquetio attack 1.22 + Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nacional attack 2.21 + Caiquetio defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Caiquetio scores more
27%
level
22%
Nacional scores more
52%

Nacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caiquetio vs Nacional

Nacional beat Caiquetio 3-1 in Division di Honor on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.