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Cailungo vs Faetano — Coppa Titano 2020

Cailungo
Cailungo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Faetano
Faetanoadvanced
10/27/2021Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio di Domagnano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cailungo39%
×Draw27%
Faetano34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cailungo
1.33
Faetano
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cailungo
0.67
Faetano
0.43

allows per match

Cailungo
2.00
Faetano
2.00

finishing

Cailungo+0.00on par
Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cailungo ↓

Faetano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cailungo or draw
66%
Cailungo or Faetano
73%
Draw or Faetano
61%

Winning margin

Cailungo wins by 2+
18%
Faetano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cailungo 1+ goals
74%
Cailungo 2+ goals
38%
Cailungo 3+ goals
15%
Faetano 1+ goals
70%
Faetano 2+ goals
34%
Faetano 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cailungo (draw refunded)
54%
Faetano (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cailungo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Faetano away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cailungo attack 0.67 + Faetano defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Faetano attack 0.43 + Cailungo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cailungo scores more
39%
level
27%
Faetano scores more
34%

Cailungo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cailungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cailungo vs Faetano

Faetano beat Cailungo 2-0 in Coppa Titano on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio di Domagnano in Domagnano.