CAI 2–0 Tiro Federal: Result & Stats

CAI

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tiro Federal

J. Molina 58'

R. Linares 20'

8/16/2015

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 3Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CAI64%

×Draw29%

Tiro Federal6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAIExpected goals in this matchTiro Federal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.22

CAI

1.27

Tiro Federal

0.22

CAI creates 477% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.22

creates per match

0.00

0.44

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

CAI

1.22

Tiro Federal

0.00

allows per match

CAI

0.44

Tiro Federal

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAI+0.00on par

Tiro Federal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No86
Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAI ↓

Tiro Federal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–029%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–14%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (29%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

CAI or draw

94%

CAI or Tiro Federal

71%

Draw or Tiro Federal

36%

Winning margin

CAI wins by 2+

32%

Tiro Federal wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

CAI 1+ goals

72%

CAI 2+ goals

36%

CAI 3+ goals

14%

Tiro Federal 1+ goals

20%

Tiro Federal 2+ goals

2%

Tiro Federal 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

CAI (draw refunded)

91%

Tiro Federal (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

8%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAI at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Tiro Federal away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAI attack 1.22 + Tiro Federal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tiro Federal attack 0.00 + CAI defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

CAI scores more

64%

level

29%

Tiro Federal scores more

6%

CAI at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CAI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

38'

58'

58'

64'

B. Urquiza← D. Migueles

70'

D. Angaroni← G. Tarnavassa

CAI

Tiro

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

38'▲J. Molina←▼S. Nuñez

CAI substitutes

Molina

58'▲J. Rojas←▼A. Blasco

64'▲B. Urquiza←▼D. Migueles

70'▲D. Angaroni←▼G. Tarnavassa

Tiro Federal substitutes

RojasUrquizaAngaroni