CAI 0–0 Sportivo Las Parejas: Result & Stats

CAI

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Las Parejas

10/18/2015

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 12Estadio Municipal de Comodoro Rivadavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

CAI51%

×Draw28%

Sportivo Las Parejas21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAIExpected goals in this matchSportivo Las Parejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.79

CAI

1.39

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.79

CAI creates 76% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 114 away

1.50

creates per match

0.86

0.73

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

CAI

1.50

Sportivo Las Parejas

0.86

allows per match

CAI

0.73

Sportivo Las Parejas

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAI+0.00on par

Sportivo Las Parejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAI ↓

Sportivo Las Parejas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CAI or draw

79%

CAI or Sportivo Las Parejas

72%

Draw or Sportivo Las Parejas

49%

Winning margin

CAI wins by 2+

25%

Sportivo Las Parejas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CAI 1+ goals

75%

CAI 2+ goals

40%

CAI 3+ goals

16%

Sportivo Las Parejas 1+ goals

55%

Sportivo Las Parejas 2+ goals

19%

Sportivo Las Parejas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CAI (draw refunded)

71%

Sportivo Las Parejas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAI at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Sportivo Las Parejas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.28 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAI attack 1.50 + Sportivo Las Parejas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sportivo Las Parejas attack 0.86 + CAI defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CAI scores more

51%

level

28%

Sportivo Las Parejas scores more

21%

CAI at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CAI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'

J. Molina← L. Reynoso

78'

A. Figueroa← R. Linares

83'

A. Fernández← J. Abadie

87'

B. Orosco← S. Leguiza

87'

S. Allende← G. Roblero

CAI

Sportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

78'▲J. Molina←▼L. Reynoso

78'▲A. Figueroa←▼R. Linares

87'▲B. Orosco←▼S. Leguiza

CAI substitutes

MolinaFigueroaOrosco

83'▲A. Fernández←▼J. Abadie

87'▲S. Allende←▼G. Roblero

Sportivo Las Parejas substitutes

FernándezAllende