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CAI vs Gutiérrez — Torneo Federal A 2018

CAI
CAI
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gutiérrez
Gutiérrez
R. Linares 24'
M. Orué 7'
10/30/2015Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Play-off / outEstadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

CAI62%
×Draw26%
Gutiérrez13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CAI
1.52
Gutiérrez
0.52

CAI creates 192% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

creates per match

CAI
1.30
Gutiérrez
0.63

allows per match

CAI
0.40
Gutiérrez
1.74

finishing

CAI+0.00on par
Gutiérrez+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAI ↓

Gutiérrez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CAI or draw
87%
CAI or Gutiérrez
74%
Draw or Gutiérrez
38%

Winning margin

CAI wins by 2+
33%
Gutiérrez wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CAI 1+ goals
78%
CAI 2+ goals
45%
CAI 3+ goals
20%
Gutiérrez 1+ goals
41%
Gutiérrez 2+ goals
10%
Gutiérrez 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CAI (draw refunded)
83%
Gutiérrez (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAI at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Gutiérrez away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAI attack 1.30 + Gutiérrez defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gutiérrez attack 0.63 + CAI defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

CAI scores more
62%
level
26%
Gutiérrez scores more
13%

CAI at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CAI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Orué
24'
R. Linares

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CAI vs Gutiérrez

CAI and Gutiérrez drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 30, 2015.

Goals: M. Orué (7'), R. Linares (24').

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Río Cuarto in Ciudad de Río Cuarto, Provincia de Córdoba.