Cagliari 1–1 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Venezia

K. Baldé 19'

G. Busio 90+2'

10/1/2021

Serie A · Round 7Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cagliari46%

×Draw26%

Venezia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.08

Cagliari

1.45

Venezia

1.08

Cagliari creates 34% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 34 away

1.27

creates per match

0.68

1.48

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Cagliari

1.27

Venezia

0.68

allows per match

Cagliari

1.48

Venezia

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par

Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

72%

Cagliari or Venezia

74%

Draw or Venezia

54%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

22%

Venezia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

77%

Cagliari 2+ goals

42%

Cagliari 3+ goals

18%

Venezia 1+ goals

66%

Venezia 2+ goals

29%

Venezia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

62%

Venezia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 120 matches

Venezia away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.27 + Venezia defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

Venezia attack 0.68 + Cagliari defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cagliari scores more

46%

level

26%

Venezia scores more

28%

Cagliari at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

G. Busio

Venezia · M

7.6

Match Events

19'

22'

23'

30'

46'

D. Črnigoj← S. Kiyine

46'

50'

52'

54'

66'

L. Pavoletti← K. Baldé

68'

70'

72'

77'

80'

87'

G. Altare← A. Carboni

87'

A. Grassi← K. Strootman

90+2'

G. Busio↳ D. Heymans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariVenezia

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots11

2Corners4

15Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots11

3On Target4

4Off Target5

2Blocked2

2Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

370Total Passes498

297Accurate Passes416

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls19

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2