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Cagliari vs Spal — Serie A 2018

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Spal
Spal
4/7/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 31Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cagliari44%
×Draw25%
Spal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.52
Spal
1.21

Cagliari creates 26% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cagliari
1.27
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Cagliari
1.49
Spal
1.76

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
70%
Cagliari or Spal
75%
Draw or Spal
56%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
22%
Spal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
78%
Cagliari 2+ goals
45%
Cagliari 3+ goals
20%
Spal 1+ goals
70%
Spal 2+ goals
34%
Spal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
59%
Spal (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.49 · 118 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.27 + Spal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Spal attack 0.92 + Cagliari defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cagliari scores more
44%
level
25%
Spal scores more
30%

Cagliari at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cagliari 2–1 Spal

Cagliari beat Spal 2-1 in Serie A on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.