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Cagliari vs Salernitana — Serie A 2018

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Salernitana
Salernitana
11/26/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 14Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cagliari47%
×Draw25%
Salernitana28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.61
Salernitana
1.20

Cagliari creates 34% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cagliari
1.26
Salernitana
0.89

allows per match

Cagliari
1.50
Salernitana
1.97

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par
Salernitana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Salernitana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
72%
Cagliari or Salernitana
75%
Draw or Salernitana
53%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
24%
Salernitana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
80%
Cagliari 2+ goals
48%
Cagliari 3+ goals
22%
Salernitana 1+ goals
70%
Salernitana 2+ goals
34%
Salernitana 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
62%
Salernitana (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 117 matches

Salernitana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.26 + Salernitana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.61

Salernitana attack 0.89 + Cagliari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cagliari scores more
47%
level
25%
Salernitana scores more
28%

Cagliari at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Cagliari 1–1 Salernitana

Cagliari and Salernitana drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 26, 2021.

The match was played at Unipol Domus in Cagliari.