Dobrudzha 0–2 Tsarsko Selo: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

0 – 2

Tsarsko Selo

9/30/2018

Second League · Round 9Stadion Druzhba (Dobrich)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dobrudzha36%

×Draw26%

Tsarsko Selo39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.40

Dobrudzha

1.34

Tsarsko Selo

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 23 away

1.43

creates per match

1.91

0.89

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Tsarsko Selo

1.91

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Tsarsko Selo

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

61%

Dobrudzha or Tsarsko Selo

74%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

64%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

16%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

74%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

39%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

15%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

75%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

41%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

48%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.91 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

36%

level

26%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

39%

Tsarsko Selo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff