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Cagliari vs AS Roma — Serie A 2018

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
8/18/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 1Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Cagliari31%
×Draw27%
AS Roma42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.10
AS Roma
1.34

AS Roma creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cagliari
0.96
AS Roma
1.43

allows per match

Cagliari
1.26
AS Roma
1.24

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
58%
Cagliari or AS Roma
73%
Draw or AS Roma
69%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
12%
AS Roma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
67%
Cagliari 2+ goals
30%
Cagliari 3+ goals
10%
AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
39%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
42%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + AS Roma defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

AS Roma attack 1.43 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cagliari scores more
31%
level
27%
AS Roma scores more
42%

AS Roma at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cagliari vs AS Roma

Cagliari and AS Roma drew 0-0 in Serie A on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Unipol Domus in Cagliari.