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Cagliari vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
L. Pavoletti 52'
L. Pellegrini 78'
Ibañez 71'
10/27/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 10Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Cagliari32%
×Draw27%
AS Roma41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.16
AS Roma
1.33

AS Roma creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

Cagliari
0.96
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Cagliari
1.26
AS Roma
1.35

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
59%
Cagliari or AS Roma
73%
Draw or AS Roma
68%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
13%
AS Roma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
69%
Cagliari 2+ goals
32%
Cagliari 3+ goals
11%
AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
38%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
44%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cagliari scores more
32%
level
27%
AS Roma scores more
41%

AS Roma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. PellegriniAS RomaAS Roma · M
8.7

Match Events

38'
Nicolò Zaniolo
46'
S. El Shaarawy← H. Mkhitaryan
52'
L. Pavoletti↳ R. Bellanova
57'
F. Ohene-Gyan← M. Viña
71'
Ibañez↳ L. Pellegrini
73'
João Pedro
76'
Charalampos Lykogiannis
78'
L. Pellegrini
79'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
79'
Tammy Abraham
79'
C. Oliva← A. Grassi
81'
R. Calafiori← N. Zaniolo
82'
K. Baldé← A. Deiola
83'
Riccardo Calafiori
87'
Raoul Bellanova
90+1'
M. Kumbulla← J. Veretout

Possession

41%Cagliari

Shots

7Cagliari

Pass accuracy

47%Cagliari

Statistics

CagliariAS
Overview
41%Possession59%
7Total Shots22
2Corners10
16Fouls16
Shots
7Total Shots22
5On Target3
2Off Target13
0Blocked6
5Inside Box16
2Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
315Total Passes439
238Accurate Passes374
76%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls16
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Cagliari vs AS Roma

AS Roma beat Cagliari 2-1 in Serie A on October 27, 2021.

Goals: L. Pavoletti (52'), Ibañez (71'), L. Pellegrini (78').

AS Roma controlled possession (59%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at Unipol Domus in Cagliari.