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Cagliari vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
AS Roma
AS Roma
João Pedro 89', 28'
Gastón Pereiro 75'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan 81'
Justin Kluivert 64'
Nikola Kalinić 41', 29'
3/1/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 26Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Cagliari32%
×Draw27%
AS Roma41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.16
AS Roma
1.33

AS Roma creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

Cagliari
0.96
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Cagliari
1.26
AS Roma
1.35

finishing

Cagliari+0.12scores more
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
59%
Cagliari or AS Roma
73%
Draw or AS Roma
68%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
13%
AS Roma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
69%
Cagliari 2+ goals
32%
Cagliari 3+ goals
11%
AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
38%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
44%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 0.96 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Cagliari defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cagliari scores more
32%
level
27%
AS Roma scores more
41%

AS Roma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
Nikola KalinićAS RomaAS Roma · F
9.4

Match Events

28'
João Pedro↳ Christian Oliva
29'
Nikola Kalinić
34'
Cengiz Ünder
35'
João Pedro
41'
Nikola Kalinić↳ Henrikh Mkhitaryan
55'
Gonzalo Villar
64'
Justin Kluivert↳ Nikola Kalinić
66'
Giovanni Simeone← Alberto Paloschi
66'
Gastón Pereiro← Artur Ioniță
69'
Giovanni Simeone
75'
Gastón Pereiro↳ Radja Nainggolan
76'
Carles Pérez← Cengiz Ünder
78'
Justin Kluivert
80'
Luca Pellegrini
81'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan↳ Aleksandar Kolarov
84'
Davide Santon← Bruno Peres
85'
Jordan Veretout← Justin Kluivert
89'
João Pedro
89'
João PedroMissed penalty
90'
Daniele Ragatzu
90'
Davide Santon
90'
Pau López
90'
Daniele Ragatzu← Marko Rog

Possession

56%Cagliari

Shots

7Cagliari

Pass accuracy

51%Cagliari

Statistics

CagliariAS
Overview
56%Possession44%
7Total Shots19
2Corners7
14Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots19
6On Target11
0Off Target5
1Blocked3
4Inside Box15
3Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
438Total Passes331
369Accurate Passes266
84%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls12
4Yellow Cards5
4Offsides2

Serie A: Cagliari 3–4 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Cagliari 4-3 in Serie A on March 1, 2020.

Goals: João Pedro (28', 89'), Nikola Kalinić (29', 41'), Justin Kluivert (64'), Gastón Pereiro (75'), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (81').

Cagliari controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 19.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.