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Cagliari vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Cagliari
Cagliari
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
AS Roma
AS Roma
M. Sau 90+5'
A. Ioniţă 84'
A. Kolarov 41'
B. Cristante 14'
12/8/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 15Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Cagliari34%
×Draw27%
AS Roma39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari
1.18
AS Roma
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

Cagliari
1.01
AS Roma
1.32

allows per match

Cagliari
1.27
AS Roma
1.34

finishing

Cagliari+0.13scores more
AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw
61%
Cagliari or AS Roma
73%
Draw or AS Roma
66%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+
14%
AS Roma wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals
69%
Cagliari 2+ goals
33%
Cagliari 3+ goals
12%
AS Roma 1+ goals
72%
AS Roma 2+ goals
37%
AS Roma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)
46%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 28 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.01 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

AS Roma attack 1.32 + Cagliari defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cagliari scores more
34%
level
27%
AS Roma scores more
39%

AS Roma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. KolarovAS RomaAS Roma · D
8.4

Match Events

14'
B. Cristante↳ J. Kluivert
41'
A. Kolarov↳ K. Manolas
47'
Bryan Cristante
64'
Paolo Faragò
65'
M. Pajač← S. Padoin
75'
M. Sau← Diego Farias
75'
Luca Pellegrini← J. Kluivert
80'
L. Cigarini← F. Bradarić
83'
J. Pastore← P. Schick
84'
A. Ioniţă
89'
Juan Jesus← N. Zaniolo
90'
Marco Sau
90'
Darijo Srna
90'
Luca Ceppitelli
90'
Luca Ceppitelli
90'
Darijo Srna
90+5'
M. Sau↳ A. Ioniţă

Possession

55%Cagliari

Shots

16Cagliari

Pass accuracy

50%Cagliari

Statistics

CagliariAS
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots24
7Corners5
17Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots24
5On Target6
8Off Target14
3Blocked4
13Inside Box13
3Outside Box11
Passing
55%Possession45%
467Total Passes377
359Accurate Passes291
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
2Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Cagliari vs AS Roma

Cagliari and AS Roma drew 2-2 in Serie A on December 8, 2018.

Goals: B. Cristante (14'), A. Kolarov (41'), A. Ioniţă (84'), M. Sau (90+5').

Cagliari controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 24.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.