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Cagliari U20 vs Udinese U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Udinese U20
Udinese U20
5/17/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 38Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cagliari U2072%
×Draw17%
Udinese U2011%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari U20
2.32
Udinese U20
0.78

Cagliari U20 creates 197% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cagliari U20
1.39
Udinese U20
0.68

allows per match

Cagliari U20
0.87
Udinese U20
3.26

finishing

Cagliari U20+0.00on par
Udinese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari U20 ↓

Udinese U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cagliari U20 or draw
89%
Cagliari U20 or Udinese U20
83%
Draw or Udinese U20
28%

Winning margin

Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
48%
Udinese U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cagliari U20 1+ goals
90%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
67%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
40%
Udinese U20 1+ goals
54%
Udinese U20 2+ goals
18%
Udinese U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
87%
Udinese U20 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Udinese U20 away — creates 0.68, concedes 3.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari U20 attack 1.39 + Udinese U20 defence 3.26 → ÷2 → 2.32

Udinese U20 attack 0.68 + Cagliari U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Cagliari U20 scores more
72%
level
17%
Udinese U20 scores more
11%

Cagliari U20 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Cagliari U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cagliari U20 vs Udinese U20

Cagliari U20 beat Udinese U20 4-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello in Cagliari.