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Cagliari U19 vs Sampdoria U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cagliari U19
Cagliari U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sampdoria U19
Sampdoria U19
10/15/2022Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 8Centro Sportivo Ercole Cellino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Cagliari U1945%
×Draw23%
Sampdoria U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari U19
1.72
Sampdoria U19
1.42

Cagliari U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

Cagliari U19
1.85
Sampdoria U19
1.54

allows per match

Cagliari U19
1.30
Sampdoria U19
1.58

finishing

Cagliari U19+0.00on par
Sampdoria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari U19 ↓

Sampdoria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cagliari U19 or draw
68%
Cagliari U19 or Sampdoria U19
77%
Draw or Sampdoria U19
55%

Winning margin

Cagliari U19 wins by 2+
24%
Sampdoria U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cagliari U19 1+ goals
82%
Cagliari U19 2+ goals
51%
Cagliari U19 3+ goals
25%
Sampdoria U19 1+ goals
76%
Sampdoria U19 2+ goals
41%
Sampdoria U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cagliari U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Sampdoria U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari U19 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Sampdoria U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari U19 attack 1.85 + Sampdoria U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sampdoria U19 attack 1.54 + Cagliari U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cagliari U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Sampdoria U19 scores more
32%

Cagliari U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cagliari U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Cagliari U19 1–1 Sampdoria U19

Cagliari U19 and Sampdoria U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Ercole Cellino in Assemini.