Cagliari U19 1–3 Milan U19: Result & Stats

Cagliari U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Milan U19

2/4/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 20Centro Sportivo Ercole Cellino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Cagliari U1947%

×Draw24%

Milan U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cagliari U19Expected goals in this matchMilan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.21

Cagliari U19

1.64

Milan U19

1.21

Cagliari U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

1.85

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cagliari U19

1.85

Milan U19

1.13

allows per match

Cagliari U19

1.30

Milan U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cagliari U19+0.00on par

Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari U19 ↓

Milan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cagliari U19 or draw

72%

Cagliari U19 or Milan U19

76%

Draw or Milan U19

53%

Winning margin

Cagliari U19 wins by 2+

25%

Milan U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cagliari U19 1+ goals

81%

Cagliari U19 2+ goals

49%

Cagliari U19 3+ goals

23%

Milan U19 1+ goals

70%

Milan U19 2+ goals

34%

Milan U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari U19 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari U19 attack 1.85 + Milan U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.64

Milan U19 attack 1.13 + Cagliari U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cagliari U19 scores more

47%

level

24%

Milan U19 scores more

28%

Cagliari U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cagliari U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff