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Cagliari U19 vs Lazio U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cagliari U19
Cagliari U19
FT
4 – 3
Lazio U19
Lazio U19
6/6/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 27Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cagliari U1952%
×Draw23%
Lazio U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari U19
1.82
Lazio U19
1.20

Cagliari U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

creates per match

Cagliari U19
1.85
Lazio U19
1.09

allows per match

Cagliari U19
1.30
Lazio U19
1.79

finishing

Cagliari U19+0.00on par
Lazio U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari U19 ↓

Lazio U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cagliari U19 or draw
75%
Cagliari U19 or Lazio U19
77%
Draw or Lazio U19
48%

Winning margin

Cagliari U19 wins by 2+
29%
Lazio U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cagliari U19 1+ goals
84%
Cagliari U19 2+ goals
54%
Cagliari U19 3+ goals
27%
Lazio U19 1+ goals
70%
Lazio U19 2+ goals
34%
Lazio U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Lazio U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari U19 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Lazio U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari U19 attack 1.85 + Lazio U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.82

Lazio U19 attack 1.09 + Cagliari U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cagliari U19 scores more
52%
level
23%
Lazio U19 scores more
25%

Cagliari U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cagliari U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cagliari U19 4 – 3 Lazio U19

Cagliari U19 beat Lazio U19 4-3 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello in Cagliari.