Cagliari U19 2–1 Cesena U19: Result & Stats

Cagliari U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cesena U19

R. Idrissi 7'

I. Delpupo 1'

A. Gessaroli 43'

4/29/2023

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 29Centro Sportivo Ercole Cellino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cagliari U1966%

×Draw18%

Cesena U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cagliari U19Expected goals in this matchCesena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.18

Cagliari U19

2.54

Cesena U19

1.18

Cagliari U19 creates 115% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

1.85

creates per match

1.06

1.30

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Cagliari U19

1.85

Cesena U19

1.06

allows per match

Cagliari U19

1.30

Cesena U19

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cagliari U19+0.00on par

Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Cagliari U19 or draw

84%

Cagliari U19 or Cesena U19

82%

Draw or Cesena U19

34%

Winning margin

Cagliari U19 wins by 2+

45%

Cesena U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cagliari U19 1+ goals

92%

Cagliari U19 2+ goals

72%

Cagliari U19 3+ goals

46%

Cesena U19 1+ goals

69%

Cesena U19 2+ goals

33%

Cesena U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cagliari U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Cesena U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari U19 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari U19 attack 1.85 + Cesena U19 defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.54

Cesena U19 attack 1.06 + Cagliari U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cagliari U19 scores more

66%

level

18%

Cesena U19 scores more

16%

Cagliari U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cagliari U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

5'

7'

9'

43'

59'

64'

A. Mameli← I. Delpupo

65'

66'

66'

72'

72'

75'

75'

75'

G. Ghinelli← M. Francesconi

80'

D. Di Francesco← G. Manenti

87'

S. Milli← F. Lilli

90+7'

V. Iliev

Cagliari

Cesena

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Battilana

59'▲M. Masala←▼A. Caddeo

64'▲A. Mameli←▼I. Delpupo

72'▲N. Pintus←▼F. Zallu

72'▲F. Arba←▼A. Pulina

Cagliari U19 substitutes

MasalaMameliPintusArba

Manager: G. Ceccarelli

75'▲A. Dénes←▼L. Polli

75'▲D. Rossi←▼A. David

75'▲G. Ghinelli←▼M. Francesconi

80'▲D. Di Francesco←▼G. Manenti

87'▲S. Milli←▼F. Lilli

Cesena U19 substitutes

DénesRossiGhinelliFrancescoMilli

Campionato Primavera - 1: Cagliari U19 2–1 Cesena U19

Cagliari U19 beat Cesena U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on April 29, 2023.

Goals: I. Delpupo (1'), R. Idrissi (7'), A. Gessaroli (43').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Ercole Cellino in Assemini.

Cagliari U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Campionato Primavera - 1: Cagliari U19 2–1 Cesena U19