Caernarfon Town 0–5 Legia Warszawa: Result & Stats

Caernarfon Town

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 0

Legia Warszawa

Sergio Barcia 83'

J. Nsamé 72'

T. Pekhart 54'

A. Jędrzejczyk 48'

B. Kapustka 46'

8/1/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundNantporth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Caernarfon Town13%

×Draw16%

Legia Warszawa71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caernarfon TownExpected goals in this matchLegia Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.75

Caernarfon Town

1.13

Legia Warszawa

2.75

Legia Warszawa creates 143% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

0.67

creates per match

2.16

3.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Caernarfon Town

0.67

Legia Warszawa

2.16

allows per match

Caernarfon Town

3.33

Legia Warszawa

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caernarfon Town+0.00on par

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caernarfon Town ↓

Legia Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Caernarfon Town or draw

29%

Caernarfon Town or Legia Warszawa

84%

Draw or Legia Warszawa

87%

Winning margin

Caernarfon Town wins by 2+

5%

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Caernarfon Town 1+ goals

68%

Caernarfon Town 2+ goals

31%

Caernarfon Town 3+ goals

11%

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

93%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

75%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Caernarfon Town (draw refunded)

16%

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caernarfon Town at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caernarfon Town attack 0.67 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.13

Legia Warszawa attack 2.16 + Caernarfon Town defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Caernarfon Town scores more

13%

level

16%

Legia Warszawa scores more

71%

Legia Warszawa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

26'

43'

46'

48'

48'

54'

55'

55'

M. Williams← D. Thomas

57'

J. Ziółkowski← R. Pankov

57'

J. Nsamé← T. Pekhart

57'

J. Adkonis← J. Çelhaka

57'

W. Urbański← B. Kapustka

61'

S. Downey← Paulo Mendes

61'

M. Hill← J. Faux

72'

J. Nsamé

74'

O. Evans← M. Jones

74'

J. Żewłakow← J. Majchrzak

83'

86'

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CaernarfonLegia

Overview

51%Possession49%

4Total Shots12

4Corners6

19Fouls12

Shots

4Total Shots12

0On Target7

2Off Target4

2Blocked1

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls12

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides7

Match Recap: Caernarfon Town vs Legia Warszawa

Legia Warszawa beat Caernarfon Town 5-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 1, 2024.

Goals: B. Kapustka (46'), A. Jędrzejczyk (48'), T. Pekhart (54'), J. Nsamé (72'), Sergio Barcia (83').

Caernarfon Town controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 12.

The match was played at Nantporth Stadium in Bangor.

Caernarfon Town vs Legia Warszawa — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Caernarfon Town vs Legia Warszawa