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Caerau (Ely) vs Ynyshir Albions — League #111 2026

Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ynyshir Albions
Ynyshir Albions
4/4/2026League #111League #111

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Caerau (Ely)44%
×Draw27%
Ynyshir Albions29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caerau (Ely)
1.40
Ynyshir Albions
1.07

Caerau (Ely) creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Caerau (Ely)
1.79
Ynyshir Albions
0.67

allows per match

Caerau (Ely)
1.47
Ynyshir Albions
1.00

finishing

Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par
Ynyshir Albions+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caerau (Ely) ↓

Ynyshir Albions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Caerau (Ely) or draw
71%
Caerau (Ely) or Ynyshir Albions
73%
Draw or Ynyshir Albions
56%

Winning margin

Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
21%
Ynyshir Albions wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
75%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
41%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
17%
Ynyshir Albions 1+ goals
66%
Ynyshir Albions 2+ goals
29%
Ynyshir Albions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
61%
Ynyshir Albions (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caerau (Ely) at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Ynyshir Albions away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.79 + Ynyshir Albions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ynyshir Albions attack 0.67 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Caerau (Ely) scores more
44%
level
27%
Ynyshir Albions scores more
29%

Caerau (Ely) at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Caerau (Ely) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Caerau (Ely) 2–0 Ynyshir Albions

Caerau (Ely) beat Ynyshir Albions 2-0 in League #111 on April 4, 2026.