Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Caerau (Ely) vs Cardiff Draconians — League #111 2026

Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff Draconians
Cardiff Draconians
T. McLean 90' (pen), 43' (pen)
D. Bowen 81' (pen)
1/2/2026League #111League #111 · South - 18Cwrt-yr-Ala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Caerau (Ely)42%
×Draw23%
Cardiff Draconians35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caerau (Ely)
1.73
Cardiff Draconians
1.57

Caerau (Ely) creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

creates per match

Caerau (Ely)
1.79
Cardiff Draconians
1.67

allows per match

Caerau (Ely)
1.47
Cardiff Draconians
1.67

finishing

Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par
Cardiff Draconians+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caerau (Ely) ↓

Cardiff Draconians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Caerau (Ely) or draw
65%
Caerau (Ely) or Cardiff Draconians
77%
Draw or Cardiff Draconians
58%

Winning margin

Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
22%
Cardiff Draconians wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
82%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
52%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
25%
Cardiff Draconians 1+ goals
79%
Cardiff Draconians 2+ goals
46%
Cardiff Draconians 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
54%
Cardiff Draconians (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caerau (Ely) at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Cardiff Draconians away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.79 + Cardiff Draconians defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cardiff Draconians attack 1.67 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Caerau (Ely) scores more
42%
level
23%
Cardiff Draconians scores more
35%

Caerau (Ely) at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caerau (Ely) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
T. McLeanPenalty
81'
D. BowenPenalty
90'
T. McLeanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Caerau (Ely) 2 – 1 Cardiff Draconians

Caerau (Ely) beat Cardiff Draconians 2-1 in League #111 on January 2, 2026.

Goals: T. McLean (43' pen, 90' pen), D. Bowen (81' pen).

The match was played at Cwrt-yr-Ala in Cardiff (Caerdydd).