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Caen vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Caen
Caen
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Niort
Niort
B. Jeannot 79' (pen), 61'
J. Deminguet 56'
J. Pi 49' (pen)
I. Sissoko 72'
V. Jacob 50'
T. Vion 4'
2/4/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Caen48%
×Draw27%
Niort25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caen
1.40
Niort
0.92

Caen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 93 away

creates per match

Caen
1.25
Niort
0.84

allows per match

Caen
1.00
Niort
1.55

finishing

Caen+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Caen or draw
75%
Caen or Niort
73%
Draw or Niort
52%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+
23%
Niort wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals
75%
Caen 2+ goals
41%
Caen 3+ goals
17%
Niort 1+ goals
60%
Niort 2+ goals
23%
Niort 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)
66%
Niort (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 107 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.25 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Niort attack 0.84 + Caen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caen scores more
48%
level
27%
Niort scores more
25%

Caen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
B. JeannotCaenCaen · F
8.2

Match Events

4'
T. Vion
30'
B. Doukansy← B. Passi
35'
Matthieu Sans
46'
B. Jeannot← M. Tchokounté
49'
J. PiPenalty
50'
V. Jacob↳ G. Kilama
54'
Hugo Vandermersch
56'
J. Deminguet
61'
B. Jeannot↳ J. Pi
62'
Jonathan Rivierez
72'
I. Sissoko↳ G. Koyalipou
73'
A. Mbengue← H. Moussaki
73'
A. Leautey← T. Vion
74'
Brahima Doukansy
78'
Brahima Doukansy
79'
B. JeannotPenalty
81'
Y. Bourhane← G. Koyalipou
84'
A. Gonçalves← J. Deminguet
90'
Valentin Jacob

Possession

46%Caen

Shots

10Caen

Pass accuracy

49%Caen

Statistics

CaenNiort
Overview
46%Possession54%
10Total Shots11
6Corners4
15Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots11
4On Target4
4Off Target4
2Blocked3
8Inside Box3
2Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
347Total Passes407
258Accurate Passes309
74%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Caen vs Niort

Caen beat Niort 4-3 in Ligue 2 on February 4, 2020.

Goals: T. Vion (4'), J. Pi (49' pen), V. Jacob (50'), J. Deminguet (56'), B. Jeannot (61', 79' pen), I. Sissoko (72').

Niort controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano (Caen) in Caen.