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Caen vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2018

Caen
Caen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Grenoble
Grenoble
9/26/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Caen43%
×Draw28%
Grenoble28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caen
1.27
Grenoble
0.97

Caen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 145 away

creates per match

Caen
1.25
Grenoble
0.94

allows per match

Caen
1.00
Grenoble
1.30

finishing

Caen+0.00on par
Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Caen or draw
72%
Caen or Grenoble
72%
Draw or Grenoble
57%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+
19%
Grenoble wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals
72%
Caen 2+ goals
36%
Caen 3+ goals
14%
Grenoble 1+ goals
62%
Grenoble 2+ goals
25%
Grenoble 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)
60%
Grenoble (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 107 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.25 + Grenoble defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Caen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Caen scores more
43%
level
28%
Grenoble scores more
28%

Caen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caen vs Grenoble

Grenoble beat Caen 2-1 in Ligue 2 on September 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Caen.