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Caen vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Caen
Caen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
J. Deminguet 90'
Alexandre Mendy 65' (pen)
1/24/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Caen45%
×Draw29%
Ajaccio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caen
1.25
Ajaccio
0.87

Caen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 104 away

creates per match

Caen
1.26
Ajaccio
0.76

allows per match

Caen
0.98
Ajaccio
1.24

finishing

Caen+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Caen or draw
74%
Caen or Ajaccio
71%
Draw or Ajaccio
55%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+
20%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals
71%
Caen 2+ goals
36%
Caen 3+ goals
13%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
58%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
22%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)
64%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 107 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.26 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + Caen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Caen scores more
45%
level
29%
Ajaccio scores more
26%

Caen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. DeminguetCaenCaen · M
8.3

Match Events

65'
Alexandre MendyPenalty
73'
T. Arconte← M. El Idrissy
79'
Y. Court← C. Zady Sery
80'
Hugo Vandermersch
84'
F. Chabrolle← M. Coutadeur
84'
A. N'Diaye← R. Nouri
85'
Johann Lepenant
85'
A. Ajroud← Y. Cimignani
88'
S. Shamal← J. Lepenant
90'
J. Deminguet↳ Y. Court

Possession

44%Caen

Shots

5Caen

Pass accuracy

48%Caen

Statistics

CaenAjaccio
Overview
44%Possession56%
5Total Shots7
2Corners6
13Fouls9
Shots
5Total Shots7
4On Target1
0Off Target5
1Blocked1
3Inside Box5
2Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
435Total Passes551
337Accurate Passes452
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
4Offsides1

Caen 2 – 0 Ajaccio

Caen beat Ajaccio 2-0 in Ligue 2 on January 24, 2022.

Goals: Alexandre Mendy (65' pen), J. Deminguet (90').

Ajaccio controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Caen.