Cadiz 0–2 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Cadiz

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

L. Astiazaran 90'

J. Ochieng 72'

2/23/2026

Segunda División · Round 27JP Financial Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cadiz43%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.40

Cadiz

1.65

Real Sociedad II

1.40

Cadiz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.56

1.24

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Cadiz

1.00

Real Sociedad II

1.56

allows per match

Cadiz

1.24

Real Sociedad II

2.30

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Cadiz-0.40scores less

Real Sociedad II+0.01on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

67%

Cadiz or Real Sociedad II

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

57%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

22%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

81%

Cadiz 2+ goals

49%

Cadiz 3+ goals

23%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

75%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

41%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

57%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 5 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.30 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.00 + Real Sociedad II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Real Sociedad II attack 1.56 + Cadiz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cadiz scores more

43%

level

24%

Real Sociedad II scores more

33%

Cadiz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Fraga

Real Sociedad II · G

8.2

Match Events

4'

Sergio OrtuñoGoal cancelled

18'

Jon Balda

36'

Ibai Aguirre

46'

J. de la Rosa← B. Ocampo

53'

D. Camara← R. Marti

61'

L. Astiazaran← D. Diaz

64'

Suso← A. Pascual

64'

J. Ontiveros← A. Cordero

70'

Jose Antonio de la Rosa

72'

J. Ochieng↳ J. Balda

76'

I. Carcelen← A. Caicedo

79'

A. Marchal← J. Ochieng

80'

J. Eceizabarrena← M. Rodriguez

80'

A. Unax← L. Beitia

90'

A. Mariezkurrena← G. Carrera

90'

L. Astiazaran↳ J. Balda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizReal

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots17

1.00Expected Goals (xG)1.90

8Corners3

12Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots17

2On Target10

9Off Target6

3Blocked1

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

329Total Passes436

255Accurate Passes370

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1