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Cadiz vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Cadiz
Cadiz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Levante
Levante
1/19/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 19Estadio Ramón de Carranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cadiz39%
×Draw26%
Levante34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cadiz
1.36
Levante
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 99 away

creates per match

Cadiz
0.96
Levante
1.14

allows per match

Cadiz
1.35
Levante
1.77

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par
Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw
66%
Cadiz or Levante
74%
Draw or Levante
61%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+
18%
Levante wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals
74%
Cadiz 2+ goals
39%
Cadiz 3+ goals
16%
Levante 1+ goals
71%
Levante 2+ goals
36%
Levante 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)
53%
Levante (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 57 matches

Levante away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.77 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 0.96 + Levante defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.36

Levante attack 1.14 + Cadiz defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cadiz scores more
39%
level
26%
Levante scores more
34%

Cadiz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cadiz 2 – 2 Levante

Cadiz and Levante drew 2-2 in La Liga on January 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón de Carranza in Cádiz.