Cadiz 1–3 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Cadiz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cordoba

S. Arribas 80'

I. Ruiz 90'

A. Fuentes 57'

C. Carracedo 18' (pen)

4/4/2026

Segunda División · Round 34JP Financial Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cadiz32%

×Draw25%

Cordoba42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.48

Cadiz

1.25

Cordoba

1.48

Cordoba creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.71

1.24

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cadiz

1.00

Cordoba

1.71

allows per match

Cadiz

1.24

Cordoba

1.50

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Cadiz-0.40scores less

Cordoba+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

58%

Cadiz or Cordoba

75%

Draw or Cordoba

68%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

14%

Cordoba wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

71%

Cadiz 2+ goals

36%

Cadiz 3+ goals

13%

Cordoba 1+ goals

77%

Cordoba 2+ goals

43%

Cordoba 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

43%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 5 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.00 + Cordoba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cordoba attack 1.71 + Cadiz defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cadiz scores more

32%

level

25%

Cordoba scores more

42%

Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

V. Aznar

Cadiz · G

7.9

Match Events

11'

Sergi Guardiola

15'

Moussa Diakité

18'

C. CarracedoPenalty

30'

Iker Álvarez

46'

C. Albarran← X. Sintes

57'

A. Fuentes↳ C. Carracedo

59'

I. Carcelen← A. Caicedo

59'

A. Pascual← Suso

59'

J. Domina← R. Marti

63'

Mario Climent

63'

D. Bri← K. Medina

70'

B. Ocampo← S. Ortuno

76'

Y. Diarra← J. Gonzalez

77'

J. Gonzalez← S. Guardiola

77'

A. del Moral← D. Requena

77'

Percan← A. Fuentes

80'

S. Arribas↳ B. Ocampo

90+5'

Iker Recio

90'

Isma Ruiz

90'

I. Ruiz↳ Percan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizCordoba

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots13

0.53Expected Goals (xG)1.73

1Corners5

17Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots13

2On Target9

6Off Target3

2Blocked1

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

293Total Passes439

209Accurate Passes347

71%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Cadiz vs Cordoba

Cordoba beat Cadiz 3-1 in Segunda División on April 4, 2026.

Goals: C. Carracedo (18' pen), A. Fuentes (57'), S. Arribas (80'), I. Ruiz (90').

Cordoba controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at JP Financial Estadio in Cadiz.

Cadiz vs Cordoba — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cadiz vs Cordoba