Cadiz 2–1 Almeria: Result & Stats

Cadiz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Almeria

Víctor Chust 90+8'

Carlos Fernández 90+6'

Gonzalo Melero 34'

5/9/2025

Segunda División · Round 39Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Cadiz39%

×Draw28%

Almeria33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

Cadiz

1.27

Almeria

1.14

Cadiz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 132 away

1.28

creates per match

1.28

1.00

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Cadiz

1.28

Almeria

1.28

allows per match

Cadiz

1.00

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

67%

Cadiz or Almeria

72%

Draw or Almeria

61%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

17%

Almeria wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

72%

Cadiz 2+ goals

36%

Cadiz 3+ goals

14%

Almeria 1+ goals

68%

Almeria 2+ goals

32%

Almeria 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

54%

Almeria (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.28 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Almeria attack 1.28 + Cadiz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cadiz scores more

39%

level

28%

Almeria scores more

33%

Cadiz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Gonzalo Melero

Almeria · M

8.0

Match Events

-5'

3'

6'

30'

34'

Gonzalo Melero↳ Nico Melamed

40'

Álex Pozo← Sergio Arribas

46'

Javi Ontiveros← Rubén Sobrino

46'

B. Ocampo← José de la Rosa

46'

Bruno Langa← Nico Melamed

51'

Bruno Langa

52'

Fernando Martínez

62'

Carlos Fernández← Óscar Melendo

67'

Javier Ontiveros

67'

Gonzalo Melero

68'

A. Radovanović← Léo Baptistão

70'

Fali

70'

Alejandro Pozo

70'

Víctor Chust← Fali

83'

Iza Carcelén← Joseba Zaldúa

83'

L. Robertone← Gonzalo Melero

85'

Rubén Alcaraz

90+9'

Víctor Chust

90+6'

Carlos Fernández↳ Javi Ontiveros

90+8'

Víctor Chust↳ Roger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizAlmeria

Overview

64%Possession36%

20Total Shots8

9Corners6

15Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots8

3On Target4

13Off Target3

4Blocked1

11Inside Box7

9Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

429Total Passes252

390Accurate Passes190

91%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls14

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards3

3Offsides0

Segunda División: Cadiz 2–1 Almeria

Cadiz beat Almeria 2-1 in Segunda División on May 9, 2025.

Goals: Gonzalo Melero (34'), Carlos Fernández (90+6'), Víctor Chust (90+8').

Cadiz controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in Cádiz.

Cadiz vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Cadiz 2–1 Almeria