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Cádiz II vs Linense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cádiz II
Cádiz II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Linense
Linense
12/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13Ciudad Deportiva Bahia De Cadiz El Rosal 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cádiz II41%
×Draw26%
Linense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cádiz II
1.39
Linense
1.21

Cádiz II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cádiz II
1.65
Linense
1.35

allows per match

Cádiz II
1.06
Linense
1.12

finishing

Cádiz II+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cádiz II ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cádiz II or draw
67%
Cádiz II or Linense
74%
Draw or Linense
59%

Winning margin

Cádiz II wins by 2+
19%
Linense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cádiz II 1+ goals
75%
Cádiz II 2+ goals
40%
Cádiz II 3+ goals
16%
Linense 1+ goals
70%
Linense 2+ goals
34%
Linense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cádiz II (draw refunded)
56%
Linense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cádiz II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Linense away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cádiz II attack 1.65 + Linense defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Linense attack 1.35 + Cádiz II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cádiz II scores more
41%
level
26%
Linense scores more
33%

Cádiz II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cádiz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cádiz II vs Linense

Linense beat Cádiz II 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Bahia De Cadiz El Rosal 4 in Puerto Real.