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Cádiz II vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cádiz II
Cádiz II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
M. Perez 18'
P. Haro 11'
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 3Campo Ramón Blanco Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cádiz II45%
×Draw29%
Atlético Central27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cádiz II
1.28
Atlético Central
0.92

Cádiz II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

creates per match

Cádiz II
1.65
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Cádiz II
1.06
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Cádiz II+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cádiz II ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cádiz II or draw
73%
Cádiz II or Atlético Central
71%
Draw or Atlético Central
55%

Winning margin

Cádiz II wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cádiz II 1+ goals
72%
Cádiz II 2+ goals
37%
Cádiz II 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
60%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
23%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cádiz II (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cádiz II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cádiz II attack 1.65 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Cádiz II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cádiz II scores more
45%
level
29%
Atlético Central scores more
27%

Cádiz II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cádiz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
P. Haro
18'
M. Perez
Cádiz
Atlético
Rubio
Manager: Rubio
José Miguel
Manager: José Miguel

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Cádiz II 1–1 Atlético Central

Cádiz II and Atlético Central drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 21, 2025.

Goals: P. Haro (11'), M. Perez (18').

The match was played at Campo Ramón Blanco Rodríguez in Puerto Real.