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Čadca vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - Center 2020

Čadca
Čadca
FT
2 – 1
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
6/20/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 12Štadión Čadca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Čadca53%
×Draw21%
Lokomotíva Zvolen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čadca
2.21
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.53

Čadca creates 44% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Čadca
1.41
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.88

allows per match

Čadca
2.18
Lokomotíva Zvolen
3.00

finishing

Čadca+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čadca ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Čadca or draw
73%
Čadca or Lokomotíva Zvolen
79%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
47%

Winning margin

Čadca wins by 2+
32%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Čadca 1+ goals
89%
Čadca 2+ goals
65%
Čadca 3+ goals
38%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Čadca (draw refunded)
66%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čadca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čadca attack 1.41 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.88 + Čadca defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Čadca scores more
53%
level
21%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
27%

Čadca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Čadca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čadca vs Lokomotíva Zvolen

Čadca beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 2-1 in 3. liga - Center on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Čadca in Čadca.