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Čadca vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Čadca
Čadca
FT
2 – 2
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
9/18/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 8Štadión Čadca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Čadca50%
×Draw21%
Liptovský Hrádok29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čadca
2.13
Liptovský Hrádok
1.59

Čadca creates 34% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Čadca
1.41
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Čadca
2.18
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Čadca+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čadca ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Čadca or draw
71%
Čadca or Liptovský Hrádok
79%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
50%

Winning margin

Čadca wins by 2+
29%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Čadca 1+ goals
88%
Čadca 2+ goals
63%
Čadca 3+ goals
35%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
80%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
47%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Čadca (draw refunded)
63%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čadca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čadca attack 1.41 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.13

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Čadca defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Čadca scores more
50%
level
21%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
29%

Čadca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Čadca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Čadca 2–2 Liptovský Hrádok

Čadca and Liptovský Hrádok drew 2-2 in 3. liga - Center on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Čadca in Čadca.