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Čadca vs Kováčová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Čadca
Čadca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kováčová
Kováčová
4/9/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 18Štadión Čadca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Čadca33%
×Draw24%
Kováčová43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čadca
1.44
Kováčová
1.66

Kováčová creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Čadca
1.41
Kováčová
1.13

allows per match

Čadca
2.18
Kováčová
1.48

finishing

Čadca+0.00on par
Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čadca ↓

Kováčová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Čadca or draw
57%
Čadca or Kováčová
76%
Draw or Kováčová
67%

Winning margin

Čadca wins by 2+
15%
Kováčová wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Čadca 1+ goals
76%
Čadca 2+ goals
42%
Čadca 3+ goals
18%
Kováčová 1+ goals
81%
Kováčová 2+ goals
49%
Kováčová 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Čadca (draw refunded)
44%
Kováčová (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čadca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čadca attack 1.41 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Čadca defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Čadca scores more
33%
level
24%
Kováčová scores more
43%

Kováčová at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kováčová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čadca vs Kováčová

Kováčová beat Čadca 2-1 in 3. liga - Center on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Čadca in Čadca.