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Cáceres vs Juara — Matogrossense 2 2024

Cáceres
Cáceres
FT
1 – 1
Juara
Juara
4/28/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Mané Garrincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cáceres25%
×Draw41%
Juara34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cáceres
0.55
Juara
0.70

Juara creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cáceres
0.60
Juara
1.00

allows per match

Cáceres
0.40
Juara
0.50

finishing

Cáceres+0.00on par
Juara+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Under
  • Under87
  • Over13

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cáceres ↓

Juara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–029%
0–120%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (29%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
71%29%1.5
36%64%2.5
13%87%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Cáceres or draw
66%
Cáceres or Juara
59%
Draw or Juara
75%

Winning margin

Cáceres wins by 2+
6%
Juara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cáceres 1+ goals
42%
Cáceres 2+ goals
11%
Cáceres 3+ goals
2%
Juara 1+ goals
50%
Juara 2+ goals
16%
Juara 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cáceres (draw refunded)
42%
Juara (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
10%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cáceres at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Juara away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cáceres attack 0.60 + Juara defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Juara attack 1.00 + Cáceres defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Cáceres scores more
25%
level
41%
Juara scores more
34%

Juara at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Juara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cáceres vs Juara

Cáceres and Juara drew 1-1 in Matogrossense 2 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Mané Garrincha in Tangará da Serra, Mato Grosso.