Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cacerense vs Operário MT — Matogrossense 2 2024

Cacerense
Cacerense
FT
1 – 1
Operário MT
Operário MT
6/29/2025Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cacerense47%
×Draw24%
Operário MT29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacerense
1.71
Operário MT
1.28

Cacerense creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cacerense
1.43
Operário MT
1.71

allows per match

Cacerense
0.86
Operário MT
2.00

finishing

Cacerense+0.00on par
Operário MT+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacerense ↓

Operário MT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cacerense or draw
71%
Cacerense or Operário MT
76%
Draw or Operário MT
53%

Winning margin

Cacerense wins by 2+
25%
Operário MT wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cacerense 1+ goals
82%
Cacerense 2+ goals
51%
Cacerense 3+ goals
24%
Operário MT 1+ goals
72%
Operário MT 2+ goals
37%
Operário MT 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cacerense (draw refunded)
62%
Operário MT (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacerense at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Operário MT away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacerense attack 1.43 + Operário MT defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Operário MT attack 1.71 + Cacerense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cacerense scores more
47%
level
24%
Operário MT scores more
29%

Cacerense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cacerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cacerense vs Operário MT

Cacerense and Operário MT drew 1-1 in Matogrossense 2 on June 29, 2025.