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Cacerense vs Atlético Matogrossense — Matogrossense 2 2024

Cacerense
Cacerense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Matogrossense
Atlético Matogrossense
5/9/2026Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cacerense69%
×Draw20%
Atlético Matogrossense11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacerense
2.00
Atlético Matogrossense
0.65

Cacerense creates 208% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cacerense
1.43
Atlético Matogrossense
0.43

allows per match

Cacerense
0.86
Atlético Matogrossense
2.57

finishing

Cacerense+0.00on par
Atlético Matogrossense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacerense ↓

Atlético Matogrossense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cacerense or draw
89%
Cacerense or Atlético Matogrossense
80%
Draw or Atlético Matogrossense
31%

Winning margin

Cacerense wins by 2+
43%
Atlético Matogrossense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Cacerense 1+ goals
86%
Cacerense 2+ goals
59%
Cacerense 3+ goals
32%
Atlético Matogrossense 1+ goals
48%
Atlético Matogrossense 2+ goals
14%
Atlético Matogrossense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cacerense (draw refunded)
86%
Atlético Matogrossense (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacerense at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Atlético Matogrossense away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacerense attack 1.43 + Atlético Matogrossense defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Atlético Matogrossense attack 0.43 + Cacerense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cacerense scores more
69%
level
20%
Atlético Matogrossense scores more
11%

Cacerense at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cacerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cacerense vs Atlético Matogrossense

Cacerense beat Atlético Matogrossense 3-0 in Matogrossense 2 on May 9, 2026.