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Cacereño vs Valdivia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Cacereño
Cacereño
CANC
00:00
Valdivia
Valdivia
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 30Estadio Príncipe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cacereño77%
×Draw16%
Valdivia8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacereño
2.33
Valdivia
0.58

Cacereño creates 302% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

Cacereño
2.38
Valdivia
0.55

allows per match

Cacereño
0.62
Valdivia
2.28

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par
Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw
92%
Cacereño or Valdivia
84%
Draw or Valdivia
23%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+
53%
Valdivia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals
90%
Cacereño 2+ goals
67%
Cacereño 3+ goals
41%
Valdivia 1+ goals
44%
Valdivia 2+ goals
12%
Valdivia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)
91%
Valdivia (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Valdivia away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 2.38 + Valdivia defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.33

Valdivia attack 0.55 + Cacereño defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Cacereño scores more
77%
level
16%
Valdivia scores more
8%

Cacereño at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cacereño host Valdivia

March 22, 2020: Cacereño take on Valdivia in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cacereño host Valdivia at Estadio Príncipe Felipe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.