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Cacereño vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cacereño
Cacereño
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
2/28/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Principe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cacereño37%
×Draw29%
Unionistas de Salamanca34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacereño
1.14
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

Cacereño
1.00
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Cacereño
1.26
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw
66%
Cacereño or Unionistas de Salamanca
71%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
63%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+
15%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals
68%
Cacereño 2+ goals
32%
Cacereño 3+ goals
11%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
66%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)
52%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 1.00 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Cacereño defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cacereño scores more
37%
level
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
34%

Cacereño at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cacereño vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Cacereño and Unionistas de Salamanca drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Principe Felipe in Cáceres.