Cacereño vs RCP Valverdeño: Preview & Prediction

Cacereño

CANC

00:00

RCP Valverdeño

4/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 34Estadio Príncipe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cacereño71%

×Draw19%

RCP Valverdeño11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CacereñoExpected goals in this matchRCP Valverdeño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.67

Cacereño

2.12

RCP Valverdeño

0.67

Cacereño creates 216% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

2.38

creates per match

0.72

0.62

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Cacereño

2.38

RCP Valverdeño

0.72

allows per match

Cacereño

0.62

RCP Valverdeño

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par

RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

RCP Valverdeño →

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw

89%

Cacereño or RCP Valverdeño

81%

Draw or RCP Valverdeño

29%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+

46%

RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals

88%

Cacereño 2+ goals

62%

Cacereño 3+ goals

35%

RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals

49%

RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals

15%

RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)

87%

RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 2.38 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.12

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Cacereño defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Cacereño scores more

71%

level

19%

RCP Valverdeño scores more

11%

Cacereño at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cacereño vs RCP Valverdeño — Match Preview

Cacereño face RCP Valverdeño on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Cacereño host RCP Valverdeño at Estadio Príncipe Felipe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Cacereño vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Cacereño vs RCP Valverdeño — Match Preview