Cacereño 3–1 Olivenza: Result & Stats

Cacereño

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Olivenza

11/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Estadio Príncipe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cacereño64%

×Draw21%

Olivenza15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CacereñoExpected goals in this matchOlivenza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.81

Cacereño

1.97

Olivenza

0.81

Cacereño creates 143% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 93 away

2.38

creates per match

1.00

0.62

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cacereño

2.38

Olivenza

1.00

allows per match

Cacereño

0.62

Olivenza

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par

Olivenza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Olivenza →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw

85%

Cacereño or Olivenza

79%

Draw or Olivenza

36%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+

39%

Olivenza wins by 2+

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals

86%

Cacereño 2+ goals

58%

Cacereño 3+ goals

31%

Olivenza 1+ goals

56%

Olivenza 2+ goals

19%

Olivenza 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)

81%

Olivenza (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Olivenza away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 2.38 + Olivenza defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Olivenza attack 1.00 + Cacereño defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cacereño scores more

64%

level

21%

Olivenza scores more

15%

Cacereño at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff