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Cacereño vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cacereño
Cacereño
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
9/20/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Principe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cacereño37%
×Draw29%
Mérida AD34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacereño
1.14
Mérida AD
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cacereño
1.00
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

Cacereño
1.26
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw
66%
Cacereño or Mérida AD
71%
Draw or Mérida AD
63%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+
15%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals
68%
Cacereño 2+ goals
32%
Cacereño 3+ goals
11%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
66%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
30%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)
52%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 1.00 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Cacereño defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cacereño scores more
37%
level
29%
Mérida AD scores more
34%

Cacereño at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cacereño vs Mérida AD

Cacereño beat Mérida AD 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Principe Felipe in Almendralejo.