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Cacereño vs CD Coria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Cacereño
Cacereño
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CD Coria
CD Coria
5/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Príncipe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cacereño48%
×Draw26%
CD Coria26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cacereño
1.47
CD Coria
1.00

Cacereño creates 47% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cacereño
2.38
CD Coria
1.38

allows per match

Cacereño
0.62
CD Coria
0.56

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par
CD Coria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

CD Coria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw
74%
Cacereño or CD Coria
74%
Draw or CD Coria
52%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+
24%
CD Coria wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals
77%
Cacereño 2+ goals
43%
Cacereño 3+ goals
18%
CD Coria 1+ goals
63%
CD Coria 2+ goals
26%
CD Coria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)
65%
CD Coria (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

CD Coria away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 2.38 + CD Coria defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

CD Coria attack 1.38 + Cacereño defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cacereño scores more
48%
level
26%
CD Coria scores more
26%

Cacereño at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cacereño vs CD Coria

Cacereño and CD Coria drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Príncipe Felipe in Cáceres.